There are a handful of primaries happening around the country today (Tuesday, June 8, 2010). The Democratic contest between incumbent Blanche Lincoln and Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is getting a lot of press, and for good reason. If the anti-incumbent mood of voters holds true in Arkansas, Sen. Lincoln could be in trouble. But our neighbors to the west aren’t the only ones going to the polls today - California, Nevada, North and South Dakota, Iowa, and South Carolina are also holding important, high-profile primaries. Chris Cilizza and Karen Yourish of the Washington Post have this to say about today’s races:

“U.S. Senate Runoff in Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln is hoping to avoid becoming the third sitting senator to lose an intraparty fight this year, but even her closest allies acknowledge that her Democratic runoff race against Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is a tossup.

Three weeks ago, Lincoln got 44.5 percent of the vote to Halter's 42.5 percent in the Democratic primary. A third candidate in that race, conservative D.C. Morrison, won 13 percent, forcing Lincoln and Halter into Tuesday's runoff.

Much like the primary, the runoff has pitted Lincoln and her supporters within the Democratic establishment -- former president Bill Clinton has campaigned for her and she has been endorsed by President Obama -- against organized labor, which has dumped millions of dollars into ads and voter identification programs on Halter's behalf.

California Republican Senate Primary: Former Hewlett Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina appears to have pulled away from former congressman Tom Campbell in the final weeks of the race for the Republican Senate nomination, relying on personal wealth to fund ads and on an endorsement from ex-Alaska governor Sarah Palin to build momentum.

Campbell, who switched from the governor's race earlier this year, long held the lead thanks to residual name identification from his unsuccessful 1992 and 2000 Senate runs. A third candidate, state Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, is running as the true conservative in the race but has gained little traction.

Fiorina's campaign launched an ad last week taking on Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) -- an early general election jab.

Nevada Republican Senate Primary: The Republican race for the right to challenge embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D) could go in a number of directions Tuesday.

Former state assemblywoman Sharron Angle enters primary day as the slight front-runner, due in part to significant expenditures from the Club for Growth -- among other conservative third-party groups -- on her behalf.

But former state party chairman Sue Lowden, who hamstrung her once-front-running campaign by suggesting a barter system for health care, remains in the game because of her considerable personal spending. And then there is businessman Danny Tarkanian, who has hung around as Angle has risen and Lowden has fallen. He is the son of Jerry Tarkanian, the former UNLV men's basketball coach.

California Republican Gubernatorial Race: Former eBay chief executive Meg Whitman's first foray into electoral politics has been a roller-coaster ride.

Whitman began her run for the Republican gubernatorial nomination as an unknown but quickly changed that by spending tens of millions of dollars on her campaign. That money paid for ads making the case to Californians that putting a businesswoman in the governor's office was the best -- only? -- solution to the state's fiscal problems.

Then came a series of attack ads from state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner (R) that painted Whitman as liberal on immigration. Whitman's poll numbers plummeted -- until she turned her focus to shoring up her ideological right flank on the issue.

That mission accomplished, Whitman's polls began to recover and now most neutral observers expect her to cruise to victory over Poizner on Tuesday.

Republican Race for South Carolina Governor: The GOP race to replace scandal-tainted Mark Sanford has turned into a sideshow, with state Rep. Nikki Haley surging in polls even as several men have alleged having affairs with her. She has denied any infidelity.

Haley is widely expected to advance to a June 22 runoff -- a near certainty with no candidate expected to win 50 percent.

Rep. J. Gresham Barrett, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and Attorney General Henry McMaster are also seeking the GOP nod.

South Carolina District 1 – Republican primary: Paul Thurmond vs. Carroll Campbell III vs. Tim Scott
The offspring of the late Sen. Strom Thurmond and the late Gov. Carroll Campbell could be edged out by Tim Scott, the first black GOP state representative since Reconstruction.

Virginia District 5 – Republican primary: Robert Hurt vs. Ken Boyd vs. Michael McPadden
Despite challenges from several "tea party" candidates, Hurt remains the leading contender to face Democratic freshman Rep. Tom Perriello in November.

Georgia District 9 – Special election runoff: Tom Graves vs. Lee Hawkins
Two Republican state lawmakers are trying to out-conservative each other to take over the seat vacated by Nathan Deal.

California District 36 – Democratic primary: Rep. Jane Harman vs. Marcy Winograd
With help from former DNC chairman Howard Dean, Winograd is running to the left of Harman in a district that is solidly Democratic but dominated by the defense and aerospace industries.

Virginia District 2 – Republican primary: Scott Rigell vs. Bert Mizusawa vs. Ben Loyola
Rigell is the GOP establishment favorite, a distinction that could be a liability in the race to challenge Democratic freshman Rep. Glenn Nye.

South Carolina District 4 – Republican primary: Rep. Bob Inglis vs. Trey Gowdy
Inglis is trying to fend off primary challengers who have made the race a referendum on his 2008 vote to bailout the banking industry.”

Source: The Washington Post (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/campaign/2010/races-to-watch/)
 

Some more points from the guys over at NBC’s First Read. Here is what they consider to be the Top 10 issues of this midterm cycle:

“1. Washington: As reflected by this month's losses by Bob Bennett, Alan Mollahan, and Arlen Specter, this isn't a good time to be an incumbent. Running against Washington is perhaps the most powerful political message out there.

2. Establishment vs. Anti-Establishment: As Trey Grayson found out in his primary against Rand Paul, it's also not a good environment to be considered the establishment-backed candidate. A warning to Dino Rossi in Washington state?

3. Economy/Jobs: This remains the overarching macro-political issue, but we're seeing more candidates run against Washington and the establishment than on the economy.

4. TARP/Wall Street Bailouts: Want to know why Republican South Carolina gubernatorial candidate is airing a minute-long TV ad justifying his TARP vote? Because there's hardly a more toxic word in the political lexicon than "bailout."

5. Immigration: Last month, we said this could be a sleeper issue, and now it's wide awake after the passage of the Arizona law, especially in GOP primaries. John McCain, Meg Whitman, Steve Poizner, and even Tim James are running provocative TV ads on immigration or English-only laws.

6. Barack Obama: The president is still an issue in GOP primaries -- remember Rubio's TV ad hitting Crist on the Obama hug? -- but his approval rating holds steady around 50%. Perhaps the bigger question is whether the president can mobilize his base for the midterms.

7. Health Care: Remember when this was the only issue people were talking about? It still remains a potent topic, but not the same way it was two months ago.

8. Competence: Last month, we listed this issue because candidates were touting their competence -- in government or business -- and questioning their opponents'. But this issue now takes on added weight with the Gulf oil spill.

9. Ethics: This is a sleeper issue, although the ethical allegations/revelations surrounding Rangel, Massa, Deal, and Souder have constructed a ready-made narrative. And as we learned in the 2006 cycle, ethics can play a big story in the battle for Congress.

10. National Security: Despite fighting two wars, having two failed terrorist attacks, and witnessing a tense situation in North Korea, national security ranks at the bottom of our list. We've come a long way since 2001-2007.”

 

With news that twice-failed gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi (R) is jumping into the Washington Senate race against Sen. Patty Murray (D), Republicans have put into play another state for a potential pick-up. Here’s what Chuck Todd and company have to say at NBC’s First Read:

“Rossi's entry now gives the GOP eleven pick-up opportunities this cycle (in AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, IL, IN, NV, ND, PA and WA), which is enough to win back control of the Senate. But in order to do that, Republicans essentially need to run the table and also win the GOP-held seats that Democrats have put in play (FL, KY, MO, NH, and OH). So Republicans need everything to break their way to regain the Senate. And while that may seem like a tall order, remember that as we've seen in past cycles ('02, '04, '06, '08), competitive races tend to break in one direction. One thing is for sure: These 16 potentially competitive races make up one heck of a Senate battleground map. It's easily one of the largest Senate maps we've seen in more than a decade. John Cornyn has done his job -- which is to expand the playing field.”
 

For anyone who is a cable news junkie, Congressman Alan Grayson (FL-08) is someone you’ve gotten to know well over the last few years. Constantly appearing on programs such as Countdown with Keith Olbermann and The Rachel Maddow Show, Grayson has become well-known in liberal circles. On the other side of the news media isle, Grayson has also made it onto many Fox News programs, though typically not in person. Instead, Grayson provides endless sound-bites for the likes of Sean Hannity or Glenn Beck, who love to use his fiery floor speeches and interviews as conversation starters with fellow conservatives, arguing that Grayson is further proof that the left has gone awry.

Grayson was able to oust four-term incumbent Republican Ric Keller in the 2008 election by a 4 percent margin in a traditionally Conservative-leaning district. He ran as a Progressive, and is now Vice-Chairman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. Prior to arriving in Washington, Grayson had a successful law practice in addition to an even more successful telecommunications company (IDT Corp) that made the Forbes 1000 list. Grayson’s personal successes allow him a stockpile of personal wealth to sink into his campaigns.

Grayson was born on March 13, 1958, in the Bronx, and after a difficult childhood was able to work his way through Harvard, earning his B.S. in Urban Studies, an M.A. in Government, a J.D., and is a candidate for a Ph.D. in Government. He has a wife, Lolita, and five children. They reside in Orlando.

Both CQ Politics and Real Clear Politics rate Florida’s eighth district a toss-up. Florida primaries are late in the election season, being held on August 24th. As a result, a Republican challenger has yet to emerge for Grayson, but there seems to be a large pool of interested contenders waiting in the wings. Congressional Quarterly lists State Representative Kurt Kelly, businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, conservative activist Todd Long, retired pilot Dan Fanelli, physician Ken Miller, and Patricia Sullivan, a homemaker active in the Tea Party as potential adversaries for Grayson.

Here’s what Congressional Quarterly has to say: “One thing you can say about freshman Democrat Grayson is that he is not afraid to take political risks by speaking his mind. The wealthy lawyer has a tenuous hold on the central Florida seat he claimed in 2008 by narrowly defeating four-term Republican incumbent Keller. But Grayson has nonetheless engaged with some zeal in Congress’ partisan battles during his first term in office.

In fact, Grayson has become the Democrats’ version of Rep. Joe Wilson, the previously little-known South Carolina Republican who raised astounding amounts of campaign funds from conservative activists after he shouted “You lie!” at President Obama during a speech to a joint session of Congress. Several weeks after Wilson’s outburst, Grayson took to the House floor to declare that the Republican Party plan for addressing the nation’s health care issues was to “don’t get sick,” and if you get sick, to “die quickly.” As Democrats did with Wilson, Republicans lambasted Grayson — which in turn produced a spike in contributions to Grayson’s campaign by Democratic activists.

Grayson reported nearly $2.4 million in total receipts just by the end of 2009, and had $939,000 remaining in the bank as of Dec. 31.

Sometimes even Grayson has to admit he goes too far, as he did this fall, publicly apologizing after he used a vulgar epithet to describe a woman official at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

But the incumbent’s personal wealth alone makes him a formidable candidate. He put more than $2.6 million in personal funds into his 2008 campaign, in which he spent a total of $3.1 million (to $1.8 million in expenditures by then-incumbent Keller).

Although the 8th has been trending Democratic, abetted by a growing Hispanic population, Republicans argue that Grayson is too liberal for a politically competitive district that has a Republican heritage. But the fresh infusion of funds he has attracted as a populist hero to Democratic activists hasn’t made it easier for Republican officials, who struggled to recruit an experienced candidate.

Several local GOP officeholders appeared close to declaring for the 2010 race against Grayson, but declined. They finally got one in early January, when state Rep. Kurt Kelly filed paperwork to enter the race. Then, a month later, he was joined by businessman Bruce O’Donoghue, who was courted to run for months by prominent Republicans and appeared to be the prospect favored by national GOP strategists.

Still, the late starts by these candidates put them in a fundraising hole compared to the lavishly financed Grayson. The only Republican who raised significant amounts of money for the race by the end of last year was Armando Gutierrez Jr., a wealthy restaurateur and developer who received the endorsement of Gus Bilirakis, the Republican representative of a nearby House district. But Gutierrez, who had reported $310,000 in total receipts, dropped out in early February, saying he was instead devoting his time to an effort to bring a professional baseball team to Orlando.

While Kelly and O’Donoghue appear the front-runners for the Republican nomination, they aren’t alone in the primary field. It includes Todd Long, a conservative activist who almost beat Keller in the 2008 GOP primary; Dan Fanelli, a retired pilot; physician Ken Miller, who initially was going to challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Suzanne M. Kosmas in Florida’s 24th District; and Patricia Sullivan, a homemaker active in the “Tea Party” movement that has arisen in reaction to Obama’s economic agenda. Democrats have taken aim at Kelly and are seeking to tie him to scandal-plagued former state Speaker Ray Sanson (R).

Also worth watching: a candidate named Peg Dunmire plans to run under the Tea Party banner in the general election.

For more information on the candidates, check out the following websites…
Incumbent Alan Grayson (D)
Kurt Kelly (R)
Bruce O’Donoghue (R)
Todd Long (R)
Dan Fanelli (R)
Ken Miller (R)
Patricia Sullivan (R)
Peg Dunmire (TP)

Stennis Notes will make sure to follow up on Florida’s 8th district after the primaries are wrapped up. Until then we’ll keep an eye on the crowded Republican field.

 

Welcome to the Stennis Institute’s new website. Updating and reprioritizing our web presence has been about a year in the making for us, and we’re proud of the results. As you can see, blogging has become a big part of what we do.

The Stennis Notes blog takes a big-picture approach by paying special attention to political events, polling numbers, and policy discussions being held throughout the nation. With the help of one of the Stennis Institute’s premier talents, student assistant Marianna Prather, the Stennis Notes blog is especially interested in the national congressional races leading up to the midterm elections in November. Thus, the blog will have a national perspective, its scope will be more expansive than that of other blogs, and it will pay special attention to important debates being held in our capitol and throughout the nation.

The idea for this blog comes from conversations had at Stennis concerning Mississippi’s role in the greater scheme of the nation, where it stands statistically, and what outside political forces mean for the state, directly or indirectly. We agreed that everything that happens outside of Mississippi indeed affects Mississippi.

So, while the focus of the Stennis Institute will remain on the state, this little corner of the office will try to give some day to day analysis on national events and discussions being had over the next several months. We at the Stennis Institute hope you enjoy the new website and look forward to the coming conversations to be had.